This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 3
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
Reflection on Week 2 lines and results
Dogs 8-5-1 ATSHome Dog 3-2 ATSRoad Dog 5-3-1 ATSOVERs 12-2 ATS
Early observations on Week 3 lines
3 totals of 48 or higher; Only 1 game with a total of less than 41 5 road favoritesThe average total is 44.2 versus 44.5 in Week 25 games have a line higher than -7 points5 games have a line between -3.0 and +3.0 Injuries and team performance are now taking shape on the lines
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NFL Week 3 Odds
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) O/U 45.5
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) O/U 44.5
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-4.0) O/U 41.5
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-4.0) O/U 45.5
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-2.0) O/U 43.5
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5) O/U 44.5
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-6.5) O/U 48.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.0) O/U 54.5
New England Patriots (-3.0) at New York Jets O/U 37.5
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Washington Commanders O/U 44.5
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) O/U 42.5
Dallas Cowboys (-13.0) at Arizona Cardinals O/U 44.0
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5) O/U 49.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.0) at Las Vegas Raiders O/U 45.0
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U 46.5
Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) O/U 44.0
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NFL Week 3 Line Movement: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
The look-ahead line was Niners -4.5 and it had moved to -6.0 in early August. The big movement came after Week 1 and it went to -9.5, and is now at -10.5. The total has actually gone up from 44.5 to 45.5.
The 49ers have looked like a top 5 team in the first two weeks, while the Giants had to perform a miracle comeback on the road to beat the Cardinals, 31-28. The key with the line movement in this game is the status of Saquon Barkley, who injured his ankle in Week 2. It is highly unlikely that Barkley will be able to go this week and it has accounted for about 1-2 points of line movement.
The 49ers have lived up to expectations, but the Giants are looking like a team in trouble especially on offense. This matchup on a short week is not ideal for the G-Men.
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NFL Week 3 Line Movement: Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins
The Broncos have lost two games in a row in which they were favored and the Dolphins have started 2-0 with impressive wins on the road against the Chargers and Patriots.
The look-ahead line on the game was Miami -3.5 and moved to -5.5 after Week 1. The line has moved another 1.5 points in the last day to -7. The total has also made a significant jump from 44.5 to 48.5. The Broncos gave up 35 points to the Commanders and the Dolphins put up 36 against the Chargers and 24 against the Patriots leading to the huge jump on the total.
This could be a very bad spot for the Broncos, who now have to travel east after two close losses at home.
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NFL Week 3 Line Movement: Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings
In this game of 0-2 teams that cannot play defense, it could mean their season fate already. The Chargers have blown leads against the Dolphins and Titans, while the Vikings were snake bit in Week 1 and in a shootout with the Eagles last Thursday night.
The look-ahead line was Chargers -1.5 and has moved 2.5 points to Vikings -1.0. I don’t think anyone will know how to play the side in this game, as both teams give bettors fits. But the total has jumped from 49.5 to 54.0 as both defenses are suspect.
NFL Week 3 Line Movement: New England Patriots at New York Jets
The look-ahead line in this game was Jets -3 and had moved to -4.5 before the Aaron Rodgers injury. Rodgers has been valued at 6 to 7 points in the line and that has held true, as the Patriots are now -3.0. The total was already low at 38.5 and has dropped to 37.5.
It is tough for oddsmakers to move a line past the key number of 3, but I can see this line moving in favor of the Pats another point, if Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson is out. Keep an eye on the Jets team total, which is sitting at a key number of 17.5, the UNDER is definitely in play.
NFL Week 3 Line Movement: Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
The Cowboys originally opened -6.5 on the road against the Cardinals, but two huge wins against the Giants and Jets now have this line at -13.0 for a whopping 6.5 line move. You always have to pay a tax on the Cowboys, who are a massive public team and the question now is did that just become too high in this spot.
The Cardinals are 0-2, but played the Commanders and Giants very tough. The key here is to look at a possible backdoor cover by the Cardinals at home. In the NFL, it is very hard to lay close to two touchdowns on the road no matter how much these two teams are apart talent-wise.
NFL Week 3 Line Movement: Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals
The look-ahead line on this game was Bengals -7.0, but their 0-2 start along with the questionable health status of quarterback Joe Burrow has moved this all the way to -2.0 and it could end up being Pick’em if Burrow is ruled out. The Rams’ strong early performance has not done much to move the line down in this spot as the movement just hit in the last 24 hours. The total has also dropped from 47 to 44, which is another indication about the status of Burrow in Week 3.
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